The forecast for refinance production during the second half of this year has been increased by mortgage banking economists. But expected outstandings have been reduced.
From July 1, 2017, through Sept. 30, single-family loan originations are expected to reach $465 billion. Lending activity is then expected to fall to $370 billion
in the fourth quarter.
A further decline is predicted for the first-three months of next year, when home lenders are expected to generate just $345 billion in residential loan production.
Those projections were provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The trade group lifted its third-quarter outlook from $455 billion predicted in last month’s outlook, while expected lending in the final-three months of 2017 rose from $348 billion.
Purchase financing is expected to account for $320 billion of the current quarter’s volume and $240 billion of fourth-quarter business.
Another
$145 billion of third-quarter production will come from refinances, more than $135 billion expected in August’s outlook. The following quarter’s refinance projection jumped to $130 billion from $107 billion.
Full-year 2017 originations are expected to reach $1.659 trillion, up from $1.627 trillion expected a month earlier.
MBA left next year’s forecast at $1.588 trillion and 2019’s projection at $1.640 trillion.
This year’s purchase production is expected to reach $1.088 trillion then rise to $1.178 trillion in 2018 and $1.245 trillion the following year.
Refinances are expected to come in at $0.571 trillion when 2017 concludes, more than $0.538 trillion previously expected. Next year’s refinances are projected at $0.410 trillion, while the 2019 total is forecasted at $0.395 trillion.
Refinance share is predicted to fall from 34 percent this year to 26 percent in 2018 and 24 percent a year later.
MBA has mortgages outstanding expanding from $9.970 trillion in 2017 to $10.340 trillion a year later and $10.750 trillion in 2019.
Last month’s forecast had the nation’s book of business growing from $10.050 trillion to $10.450 trillion in 2018 and $10.850 trillion the following year.
