2017 Refi Estimate Lifted, Purchase Cut

written by
MORTGAGE EXPERT
1 · 18 · 18

Last year’s estimated refinance production has been raised, while the purchase-money estimate was lowered. Forecasts for both categories were lifted for this year and next year.

Single-family loan originations by all lenders, including refinances and purchases, during the first-three months of 2018 are expected to come in at $335 billion.

Home lending is then expected to jump to $495 billion in the second quarter then ascend further — to $500 billion — during the following three months.

Freddie Mac, which made the predictions in its January 2018 Economic & Housing Market Forecast, didn’t publish a forecast in December.

Freddie increased its projections for the first quarter from $330 billion in its November outlook. The following quarter’s forecast rose from $490 billion, and the third-quarter prediction increased from $495 billion.

Based on Freddie’s projected refinance share, refinance originations during the current quarter are expected to reach $101 billion then rise to $124 billion in the second quarter.

Loans to finance home purchases are expected to total $235 billion in the first quarter, a little more than $231 billion previously projected. Purchase-money lending is then expected to rise to $371 billion three months later, an increase from $368 billion predicted in November.

Freddie raised its estimate of overall 2017 production to $1.82 trillion from $1.80 trillion in the last report. This year’s outlook increased to $1.74 trillion from $1.72 trillion, while 2018’s grew to $1.78 trillion from $1.77 trillion.

The estimate of last year’s refinances
expanded to $0.655 trillion from $0.612 trillion. The 2018 refinance outlook was lifted to $0.435 trillion from $0.430 trillion, and next year’s grew to $0.409 trillion from $0.407 trillion.

Freddie has refinance share thinning from 36 percent in 2017 to a quarter this year and 23 percent in 2019.

Purchase financing is estimated at $1.165 trillion for 2017, less than $1.188 trillion previously expected. The 2018 purchase forecast, however, increased to $1.305 trillion from $1.290 trillion, and next year’s outlook expanded to $1.371 trillion from $1.363 trillion.

Government share of originations is expected to slip from 23.6 percent in 2017 to 23.1 percent this year and 22.9 percent in 2019.

Author

Mortgage Daily Staff

Subscribe

Consectetur adipiscing elit dapibus, vulputate in donec tempor ultricies venenatis erat, aliquam posuere urna habitant.

Related
Posts