The three-year forecast for the origination of loans to finance single-family property purchases has been increased by nearly $50 billion.
The final-three months of this year are expected to see $439 billion in U.S. residential loan production by primary mortgage originators.
Home lending activity is expected to fall to $363 billion in the first-quarter 2018 then bounce up to $482 billion three months later.
Fannie Mae made those predictions in its Housing Forecast: December 2017.
In last month’s outlook, originations were expected to go from $358 billion in the first-three months of 2018 to $475 billion in the second quarter.
The fourth-quarter 2017 projection for purchase financing was increased to $283 billion
from $276 billion, while the following period’s forecast inched up to $216 billion from $212 billion.
Fannie trimmed the current quarter’s expected refinances to $156 billion from $162 billion and left the first-quarter 2018’s total at $147 billion.
During all 12 months of this year, Fannie expects overall mortgage production to be $1.812 trillion, more than $1.805 trillion predicted in November. The 2018 outlook inched up to $1.731 trillion from $1.710 trillion, and the following year’s forecast was raised to $1.690 trillion from $1.669 trillion..
Purchase-money lending is expected to go from
$1.140 trillion in 2017 to $1.194 trillion next year and $1.241 trillion in the following 12-month period. Expected purchase financing improved from the November forecast of $1.133 trillion this year, $1.173 trillion in 2018 and $1.221 trillion a year subsequent.
Meanwhile, refinances are predicted to drop from $0.672 trillion during the current year to $0.536 trillion in 2018 and $0.448 trillion one year later.
The secondary lender has refinance share thinning from 37 percent in 2017 to 31 percent a year later and 27 percent in 2019.
