For the third month in a row, the country’s mortgage banking sector has grown more optimistic about new lending activity for this year.
During the first-quarter 2016, residential loan originations — including refinances and purchases — are expected to amount to $350 billion.
Business is then expected to climb to $445 billion during the following three-month period and recede to $400 billion in the third quarter.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the predictions in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast for March, raised its second-quarter forecast from $405 billion in its February outlook.
Purchase financing is
projected to rise from $185 billion in the current quarter to $275 billion three months later. The second-quarter forecast was increased from $265 billion last month.
MBA has refinance production going from $165 billion to $170 billion in the second quarter. Last month’s outlook had second-quarter refinances at just $140 billion.
During all 12 months of this year, MBA expects $1.523 trillion in overall originations. The 2016 projection increased for the third consecutive month from $1.483 trillion expected by MBA last month.
Volume is then predicted to fall to $1.383 trillion in 2017 and $1.347 trillion the following year — no different than was expected in February’s outlook.
The 2016 purchase outlook expanded to $0.973 trillion from $0.963 trillion a month earlier, while the 2017 and 2018 forecasts for purchase production were left at $1.011 trillion and $1.046 trillion, respectively.
Refinance originations are expected to fall from $0.550 trillion to $0.372 trillion in 2017 and $0.301 trillion the following year. This year’s refinance forecast was increased from $0.520 trillion in the prior outlook.
Refinance share is predicted to thin from 36 percent in 2016 to 27 percent next year and 22 percent in 2018.
