This year’s projected purchase production has been lowered, while next year’s outlook was cut for both purchase financing and refinancing.
Total third-quarter mortgage originations are expected to come in at $319 billion then recede to $243 billion during the final three months of 2014.
The current quarter’s outlook was raised from last month, when the nation’s residential loan production was expected to be $317 billion. But the fourth-quarter forecast was reduced from $254 billion.
The most recent prediction came from Fannie Mae’s Housing Forecast: August 2014.
Fannie trimmed its third-quarter purchase projection to $199 billion from $203 billion, while the following quarter’s outlook fell to $174 billion from $182 billion.
The refinance forecast for the three months ended Sept. 30 was raised to $120 billion from $114 billion, but the fourth-quarter refinance prediction contracted to $69 billion from $72 billion.
Full-year total originations are expected to end 2014 at $1.112 trillion, down from $1.125 trillion expected last month.
Next year’s overall forecast fell to $1.056 trillion from $1.097 trillion.
From Jan. 1, 2014, through Dec. 31, 2014, Fannie has purchase production at $0.681 trillion versus last month’s projection of $0.697 trillion. The 2015 purchase outlook was cut to $0.780 trillion from $0.808 trillion.
This year’s refinance outlook inched up to $0.430 trillion from $0.429 trillion, but next year’s was lowered to $0.276 trillion from $0.289 trillion.
The secondary lender predicts that refinance share will fall from 39 percent in 2014 to 26 percent next year.
Adjustable-rate mortgage share, meanwhile, is expected to climb from 10 percent during the current year to 12 percent in 2015.
Fannie forecasts that mortgages outstanding will end this year at $9.942 trillion then climb to $10.057 trillion by the end of 2015.
The first mortgage portion of outstandings is expected to rise from $9.261 trillion to $9.375 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2015.
