DALLAS — (June 24, 2013) /PRNewswire/ The mortgage industry suffered some serious blows over the past decade — with hundreds of firms wiped out and close to half of employees losing their jobs at one point. While some segments have experienced a partial recovery, real estate finance is likely to remain a shell of its former self for the foreseeable future.
Two years before the financial crisis, the mortgage industry began a meltdown. Among early casualties were subprime lenders like Aegis, Ownit and Sebring. Bank failures shot up from zero in 2006 to 157 by 2010.
Mortgage Daily’s forecast calls for a continued decline in casualties, though an uptick is eventually expected among default service providers.
Failures/Closings
|
2012
|
2010
|
2006
|
| 83 | 211 | 32 |
Prior to 2007, delinquency had been running under 5%. But delinquency turned higher and peaked in 2009, though it has since retreated.
Mortgage Daily predicts that delinquency will trend lower.
| 30-Day Delinquency* | ||||||
|
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| *source: MBA |
Rates fell from as high as 6.80% in 2006 to an all-time low last year.
Mortgage Daily projects rates will continue ascending over the next year.
| 30-Year Fixed Rates* | ||||||||
|
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| *source: Freddie |
Originations hit an all-time high in 2003. Higher rates have refinances pulling down expected volume.
Originations (trillions)
| 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2003 |
| $1.1 | $1.7 | $2.0 | $3.8 |
There were over $11 trillion in mortgages outstanding in 2007, though outstandings have faded each year since.
| Mortgages Outstanding (trillions)* | ||||||
|
||||||
| *source: Fannie |
Mortgage employment was nearly 500,000 at the end of 2006 then took a sharp turn down in 2007. A moderate recovery has since pushed the total up.
While home purchases are likely to drive up demand for employees, declining refinances will more than offset those gains. In addition, as delinquency retreats, servicers will eliminate jobs.
Mortgage Daily predicts a decline in staffing over the next year.
Mortgage Jobs
| 30-Apr | 2006 |
| 292,800 | 496,300 |
source: DOL
