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CMBS Issuance Projected to Increase

Market slowly regaining strength

Jan.10, 2012

By staff

The latest outlook has the issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities increasing this year.

During 2012, CMBS issuance is projected to reach $35 billion.

That is according to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.

The New York-based firm said volume last year was $32.7 billion. However, that was less than the $35 billion predicted at the outset of 2011.

"With the resumption of issuance in 2009 and its continued expansion in 2010, we had expected a substantial rise in issuance in 2011," S&P credit analyst David Mollin said in the report Tuesday. "Although activity did increase markedly early in the year, the pace of issuance has since slowed amid the uncertainty and volatility resulting from the European debt crisis and other macroeconomic events."

The CMBS market came to a virtual standstill at the trough of the recession, the ratings agency said.

Mollin said that improved fundamentals in commercial real estate -- including rental rates, occupancy levels and valuations -- will offset global issues that are currently hurting the CMBS market. Securitization is expected to continue to play a significant role in the CRE recovery.

The CMBS market has evolved from only single-borrower transactions when issuance first re-emerged in 2009 to smaller multi-borrower conduit pools with between 23 and 43 loans in 2010. By last year, both the number and diversity of transaction types increased as investor demand increased.

Single-borrower and conduit transactions continue to dominate the market, but transaction sizes are expected to increase to a range of from 32 loans to 37 loans.

S&P noted that floating-rate transactions, including large-loan pooled transactions, have returned to the market. In addition, issuers are now considering deals backed by seasoned performing, sub-performing, and nonperforming loans.

S&P warned, however, that downgrades are expected to dominate ratings actions this year -- with the significant volume of maturing loans to be a major driver of the downgrades.

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