Next year’s home-loan fundings are forecasted to be 9 percent higher than this year’s, while expected activity in 2013 is a third higher than 2011’s projection.
The first three months of 2011 will bring $266 billion in residential originations, Fannie Mae predicted in its latest housing forecast. That’s about the same as the $269 billion predicted last month but a big decline from $474 billion originated in the fourth-quarter 2010.
Fannie expects originations to stay at about that level in the second and third quarters.
Refinance share will drop to 58 percent this quarter from three quarters three months earlier. A 29 percent share is predicted for the second quarter, and the share will remain within nine basis points of that level through the end of next year.
The share of applications that are adjustable-rate was 5 percent last quarter and is expected to be 5 percent this quarter. But the share will reach 15 percent by 2013.
Full-year 2011 production is projected to fall to $1.028 trillion from around $1.530 trillion last year.
Next year’s originations will edge up to $1.124 trillion, while Fannie forecasts that 2013 fundings will reach $1.376 trillion.
