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Mortgage Bankers Cut Purchase Outlook, Raise Refis

2013 overall origination outlook raised by $10 billion

Nov. 27, 2013

By Mortgage Daily staff

Mortgage bankers have scaled back their projections for purchase financing this year and next year but lifted their refinance forecast.

During the final three months of this year, $293 billion in residential originations -- including refinances and purchase financing -- are predicted. Volume is expected to drop to $264 billion then increase to $311 billion in the second-quarter 2014.

Last month, fourth quarter-volume was predicted to be $283 billion then fall to $273 billion during the first quarter of next year and rise to $308 billion in the following period.

The outlook was outlined in the MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The fourth-quarter refinance projection was raised to $155 billion from $136 billion, and the first-quarter 2014 refinance outlook inched up to $132 billion from $131 billion.

But this quarter's purchase financing forecast was cut to $138 billion from $147 billion, while expected purchase production for the first quarter of next year fell to $132 billion from $142 billion.

MBA increased its overall 2013 forecast to $1.755 trillion from $1.745 trillion predicted in October. But next year's projection was lowered to $1.180 trillion from $1.186 trillion.

Full-year 2015 originations are still expected to come in at $1.229 trillion.

This year's refinance forecast rose to $1.103 trillion from $1.083 trillion, and next year's crept up to $0.465 trillion from $0.463 trillion. The 2015 refinance forecast was left at $0.433 trillion.

Refinance share is expected to fall from 63 percent in 2013 to 39 percent next year and 35 percent in 2015.

This year's purchase projection fell to $0.652 trillion from $0.661 trillion, while the 2014 forecast was reduced to $0.715 trillion from $0.723 trillion. The following year, mortgage lenders are expected to generate $0.796 trillion in purchase production.

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