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Quarterly residential mortgage production by lender. Subprime, Alt-A, home equity and conforming originations. Volume by quarter since 2003.

Fannie Slashes Q4 Refi Outlook

$305 billion in total originations expected in Q4

Dec. 20, 2013

By Mortgage Daily staff

The forecast for refinance originations during the final three months of this year has been reduced nearly 40 percent by Fannie Mae. For the first time in three years, mortgages outstanding are expected to exceed $10 trillion.

Including purchase financing and refinancing, residential originations are projected to fall from $305 billion during the current quarter to $285 billion in the first three months of next year. Second-quarter 2014 production is expected to jump to $368 billion.

Last month, Fannie projected that fourth-quarter mortgage production would come in at $396 billion, retreat to $317 billion in the first quarter of next year and increase to $372 billion during the following three-month period.

Fannie's Housing Forecast: December 2013 has purchase production dropping from $169 billion in the current period to $148 billion then jumping to $227 billion in the second quarter of next year.

The previous outlook had purchases going from $172 billion to $148 billion then climbing to $226 billion.

Fannie slashed its fourth-quarter 2013 refinance forecast to $137 from last month's prediction of $224 billion.

The first-quarter 2014 refinance projection was cut to $136 billion from $169 billion, and the following period's expected refinances were reduced to $140 billion from $145 billion.

The full-year 2013 total outlook was lifted to $1.824 trillion from $1.822 trillion, while next year's forecast was trimmed to $1.319 trillion from $1.358 trillion.

The purchase portion of this year's originations is expected to amount to $0.699 trillion, up from $0.689 trillion in November. The 2014 purchase outlook inched up to $0.800 trillion from $0.796 trillion.

But Fannie scaled back projected refinance production for this year to $1.126 trillion from $1.133 trillion, while the 2014 refinance forecast was reduced to $0.520 trillion from $0.562 trillion.

Refinance activity reflect a projected refinance share of 62 percent in 2013 and 39 percent next year.

Fannie predicts that adjustable-rate mortgages will account for 7 percent of this year's total activity and 10 percent of 2014 volume.

Home loans outstanding will climb from $9.861 trillion this year to $10.025 trillion in 2014. The last time Fannie had outstanding mortgages at more than $10 trillion was in 2011, when the estimate was $10.158 trillion.

First mortgages are expected to account for $9.151 trillion of the 2013 total and $9.323 trillion of next year's total outstandings.

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