In their last forecast of the year, mortgage bankers slightly scaled back expected home loan originations for next year.
Residential loan originations from all sources are projected to total $293 billion in the three months ended Dec. 31.
After that, business is expected to taper off and fall to $258 billion in the first-quarter 2014 then bounce up to $311 billion during the following three months.
The Mortgage Bankers Association released the projections in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
Last month, the trade group had fourth-quarter business at the same level, though the first-quarter 2014 outlook was higher at $264 billion.
Purchase financing volume is expected to fall from $138 billion to $128 billion then jump to $196 billion in the second-quarter 2014. The November outlook had first-quarter 2014 purchase production higher at $132 billion.
Refinancing activity is expected to fall from $155 billion in the final three months of this year to $130 billion in the first of 2014 then decline to $115 billion. MBA predicted last month that refinance originations would total $132 billion in the first quarter of next year.
The trade group has full-year total originations falling from $1.755 trillion this year to $1.174 trillion in 2014. The following year, MBA has mortgage production rebounding somewhat to $1.229 trillion.
The November forecast had 2014 production higher at $1.180 trillion.
The 2013 purchase outlook was left at $0.652 trillion, while next year’s forecast was trimmed to $0.711 trillion from $0.715 trillion. No change in the 2015 projection left it at $0.796 trillion.
Similarly, refinance volume is expected to reach $1.103 trillion this year, the same as last month. Next year’s refinance forecast slipped to $0.463 trillion from $0.465 trillion, and the 2015 outlook was unchanged at $0.433 trillion.
MBA expects refinance share to drop from 63 percent in 2013 to 39 percent next year and 35 percent the following year.
