During the past month, the country’s mortgage bankers have grown more optimistic about the level of residential loan originations during the first half of this year.
Home-lending volume, including refinances and loans to finance home purchases, is expected to total $361 billion during the first-three months of this year.
Production is then expected to jump to $450 billion in the
second quarter before retreating to $437 billion during the following three-month period.
The predictions were made in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The trade group raised its first-quarter outlook from $352 billion in the February forecast, while the following period’s expected volume was lifted from $430 billion.
Purchase-money production is projected to account for $212 billion of the current quarter’s activity. Second quarter purchase financing is forecasted at $322 billion, more than the $310 billion expected last month.
Another $149 billion of first-quarter originations will come from refinances, more than the $140 billion previously predicted. The second-quarter refinance outlook increased to $128 billion from $120 billion.
The full-year 2017 forecast for overall originations increased to $1.600 trillion from $1.571 trillion projected in the prior month. No changes were made to the $1.588 trillion 2018 outlook and the $1.640 trillion expected the following year.
Purchase financing is expected to climb from $1.104 trillion this year to $1.178 trillion next year and $1.245 trillion in 2019. The 2017 prediction increased from $1.092 trillion in the last report.
MBA expects refinance originations to fall from $0.496 trillion in th the current year to $0.410 trillion in 2018 and $0.395 trillion one year later. This year’s refinance forecast rose from $0.479 trillion predicted in February.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 31 percent in 2017 to 26 percent next year and 24 percent in 2019.
The association has mortgage debt outstanding expanding from $10.091 trillion in the current year to $10.500 trillion in 2018 and $10.877 trillion a year later.
