Mortgage bankers have an improved outlook about refinance volume and overall origination activity for the current three-month cycle.
Home-lending activity during the second quarter is expected to total $480 billion then stall three months later and fall to $400 billion.
Residential loan production is then forecasted to sink, with the outlook projecting just $328 billion during the fourth quarter of this year.
The predictions were presented in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The trade group lifted its second-quarter outlook from $445 billion expected in last month’s forecast.
MBA predicts purchase financing will rise from $275 billion in the current quarter to $290 billion in the third quarter.
Refinance volume is expected to total $205 billion in the second quarter, more than the $170 billion previously expected.
Third-quarter refinance production is pegged at $110 billion.
Full-year 2016 overall originations are expected to amount
to $1.558 trillion, more than the $1.523 trillion previously forecasted.
Volume is then projected to fall to $1.383 trillion in 2017 and $1.347 trillion in 2018.
MBA has purchase production steadily rising from $0.973 trillion this year to $1.011 trillion in 2017 and $1.046 trillion the following year.
The refinance outlook for 2016 improved to $0.585 trillion from $0.550 trillion in the March forecast.
Next year’s refinance forecast is $0.372 trillion, while it is expected to fall further to $0.301 trillion in 2018.
Refinance share is projected to go from 38 percent this year to 27 percent in 2017 and 22 percent one year later.
