The forecast for mortgage refinances during the second half of this year has been increased, though it was at the expense of the second-quarter estimate.
Total single-family loan originations, including refinances and mortgages to finance a home purchase, are expected to reach $500 billion in the third quarter.
Industry-wide mortgage production is then expected to diminish — tumbling to $413 billion during the final-three months of this year.
Freddie Mac made those predictions in its August 2017 Economic & Housing Market Forecast.
The secondary lender raised its current-quarter outlook from $485 billion expected in last month’s forecast, while the fourth-quarter projection was increased from $389 billion. At the same time, the estimate of second-quarter 2017 business was reduced by $39 billion.
Based on refinance share provided by Freddie, Mortgage Daily estimates that refinance production is expected to fall from $160 billion in the third quarter to $132 billion three months later. The refinance forecast rose from a month earlier, when $146
was expected for the current quarter and $109 billion was projected for the final quarter of this year.
Purchase-money production is expected to fall from $340 billion this quarter to $281 billion in the fourth quarter.
Freddie has full-year mortgage production retreating from $1.800 trillion this year to $1.695 trillion in 2018.
Refinances are expected to account for $0.594 trillion of 2017 originations and $0.424 trillion of next year’s business.
Refinance share is expected to thin from a third this year to a quarter in 2018.
Purchase volume, meanwhile, is predicted to increase from $1.206 trillion in 2017 to $1.271 trillion next year.
Based on the projected volume of loans either insured by the Federal Housing Administration or guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs, government share of the mortgage market is expected to thin from 21.4 percent this year to 20.4 percent in 2018.
