This year’s forecasted volume of loans used to finance a home purchase has been trimmed by the nation’s mortgage bankers, leaving less overall originations expected.
First-quarter 2018 purchase and refinance single-family loan production by all U.S. residential lenders is predicted to reach $339 billion.
Home lending is then expected to jump to $450 billion during the following three months and continue at that same level in the third quarter.
The Mortgage Bankers Association provided the projections in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
Expected current-quarter originations eased from $344 predicted in last month’s outlook.
MBA has purchase-money lending climbing from $218 billion in the first quarter to $345 billion three months later. The
current period’s forecast was reduced from 225 billion in the last report.
Refinances are projected to fall, however, from $121 billion to $105 billion in the second quarter. The first-quarter outlook inched up from $119 billion last month.
For all four quarters of this year, overall originations are expected to reach $1.609 trillion, off from $1.614 trillion predicted in December. The trade group has 2019 volume at $1.645 trillion and the following year’s production at $1.712 trillion.
MBA reduced its 2018 purchase-money forecast to $1.183 trillion from $1.190 trillion previously expected. Next year forecasted purchase volume is $1.250 trillion, and 2020’s outlook is for $1.317 trillion.
Refinances are projected to reach $0.426 trillion this year then fall to $0.395 trillion in both 2019 and the following year.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 26 percent in 2018 to 24 percent next year and 23 percent a year later.
MBA has mortgage debt outstanding growing from $10.370 trillion this year to $10.760 trillion next year and $11.130 trillion in 2020.
