Rates May Jump

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, at 6.14% this week, edged down 4 basis points over the past seven days and is 12 BPS lower than a year ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

The latest forecasts from Freddie, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association have the 30-year ending the quarter at 6.28%, on the low end, and at 6.40%, on the high end.

Of the 100 mortgage industry brokers, bankers and other individuals surveyed by Bankrate.com this week, 44 forecast that rates will remain unchanged over the next month and a half or so, 33 predicted a downturn, and the rest foresaw an upturn.

The 15-year averaged 5.87%, also 4 BPS below the level a week ago, Freddie said.

Near midday, the 10-year Treasury note, a gauge for longer-term mortgages, yielded 4.46%, compared to 4.52% yesterday and 4.56% a week earlier.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 5.95%, slipping 4 BPS from last week.

Down 3 BPS from a week ago, the 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM average came in at 5.46%, Freddie said. Down 4 BPS from a week earlier, the yield on the 1-year T-bill itself was at 4.98% on Tuesday, Federal Reserve data showed.

Purchase money loan demand edged up 1 percent during the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week, but refinance requests plunged 10% — leaving overall mortgage application volume down 4 percent from the prior week, MBA said on Wednesday.

“Mortgage applications for home purchase in November have remained healthy, due largely because of the drop in mortgage rates and a softening in home prices in some areas,” Freddie Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a written statement.

While the refinance share of total 1003s decreased from the previous week to 47%, the ARM share edged down to less than 25% — the lowest level since October 2003, MBA reported.