A modest boost to the expected volume of third-quarter refinance production has a small bump being made to the overall annual origination outlook.
Residential lending, including loans to finance home purchases and to refinance existing mortgages, are expected to total $447 billion during the second quarter.
Business is then expected to climb to $462 billion during the following three-month period before settling at $370 billion in the fourth quarter.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the predictions in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, raised the third-quarter outlook by $12 billion from its forecast issued last month.
Purchase financing is expected to climb from $329 billion in the current quarter to $350 billion three months later.
Refinances, however, are expected to fall from $118 billion to $112 billion in the third quarter. In May’s outlook, the trade group’s economists had third-quarter refinances at just $100 billion.
MBA predicts that full-year overall originations will expand from $1.625 trillion in 2018 to $1.645 trillion in 2019 and $1.712 trillion in 2020.
This year’s forecast was up from $1.613 trillion previously projected.
Purchase-money lending is forecasted to rise from $1.167 trillion this year to $1.250 trillion in 2019 and $1.317 trillion a year later.
The association has refinance production falling from $0.458 trillion in 2018 to $0.395 trillion each of the following two years. The 2018 outlook was raised from $0.446 trillion a month ago.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 28 percent this year to 24 percent in 2019 and 23 percent in 2020.
MBA has one-to-four-family mortgage debt outstanding at $10.37 trillion at the end of this year, $10.76 trillion at the close of 2019 and $11.13 trillion by the time 2020 concludes.
