Home Purchase Financing Forecast Raised

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This and next year’s expected origination of loans to finance home purchases was modestly elevated. But projected 2017 refinances, however, retreated.

During the first-three months of this year, U.S. residential lenders are predicted to originate $350 billion in mortgages, including purchases and refinances.

National mortgage production is then expected to jump to $431 billion in the second quarter and $418 billion during the following three-month period.

Fannie Mae, which projected the activity in its Housing Forecast: January 2017, cut its first-quarter projection from $355 billion expected in last month’s outlook.

Purchase financing is expected to climb from $190 billion to $300 billion in the second quarter. The first-quarter outlook was trimmed from $191 billion in the last forecast, while the second-quarter projection inched up from $298 billion.

Fannie expects refinance volume to fall from $160 billion this quarter to $131 billion. The first-quarter prediction was reduced from $164 billion, while the following quarter’s forecast was trimmed from $134 billion.

Full-year originations are anticipated to fall from $1.940 trillion last year to $1.568 trillion in 2017 and $1.535 trillion the following year. The 2016 estimate rose from $1.904 trillion, while the next year’s forecast was reduced from $1.573 trillion and the 2018 projection was raised from $1.530 trillion.

The purchase-money estimate for 2016 was lifted to $1.019 trillion from $1.013 trillion. This year’s forecast crept up to $1.058 trillion from $1.053 trillion, and next year’s outlook rose to $1.154 trillion from $1.149 trillion.

Fannie estimates 2016’s refinance production at $0.922 trillion, more than the $0.890 trillion expected last month. But this year’s refinance forecast was reduced to $0.510 trillion from $0.520 trillion, and the 2018 outlook was left at $0.381 trillion.

Refinance share is expected to go from 48 percent last year to 33 percent in 2017 and 25 percent next year.

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Mortgage Daily Staff

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