Mortgage bankers have lowered their outlook for the second-quarter volume of loans made to finance a home purchase, though there was a slight bump in projected refinances.
Overall mortgage originations, including purchase financing and refinancing, is expected to work out to $346 billion during the first quarter of this year.
Production by all U.S. home lenders is then projected
to reach $444 billion three months later and ascend further — to $450 billion — during the third quarter.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the predictions in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, reduced its second-quarter outlook from $450 billion expected last month.
Purchase-money lending is expected to go from $218 billion this quarter to $334 billion in the second quarter. MBA lowered the second-quarter purchase outlook from $345 billion in February.
Refinance volume is projected to fall from $128 billion in the first quarter to $110 billion the following three-month period. MBA previously had second-quarter refinance production at $105 billion.
From Jan. 1, 2018, through the end of this year, the trade group predicts that overall home lending will reach $1.610 trillion, less than $1.616 trillion predicted in the last economic forecast. Originations are expected to ascend to $1.645 trillion next year and $1.712 trillion in 2020.
This year’s expected purchase financing was lowered o $1.172 trillion from the $1.183 trillion that was predicted in February’s outlook. Production is then projected to climb to $1.250 trillion in 2019 and $1.317 trillion one year later.
MBA has 2018 refinances at $0.438 billion, up modestly from $0.433 trillion predicted last month. The outlook for refinances is $0.395 trillion for next year and 2020.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 27 percent this year to
24 percent in 2019 and 23 percent the following year.
MBA estimates that mortgage debt outstanding will grow from $9.840 trillion in 2018 to $9.930 trillion next year and $10.010 trillion in 2020.
