A rise in expected home-purchase lending next year more than offsets an anticipated drop in refinances. This year’s overall outlook improved from the previous forecast.
From Jan. 1, 2017, until the end of this year, 4.2 million loans used to finance the purchase of a single-family residence are expected to be originated for $1.076 trillion.
That turned out to be more than the
$1.025 trillion in expected U.S. purchase-money production for this year predicted in the April 2017 forecast.
iEmergent delivered the latest outlook Tuesday in its
2018 – 2022 U.S. Total Mortgage Volume Forecast.
Next year, 4.4 million purchase-money loans are predicted to be originated for $1.182 trillion.
“For 2018, we expect that the solid economy, robust job market and strengthening household balance sheets will drive healthy increases in the purchase segment,” iEmergent Chief Analytics Officer Mark Watson said in the report.
Between 2.4 million and 2.8 million loans are expected to be refinanced in 2017 for between $0.630 trillion and $735 trillion.
Last month’s report had the current 12-month period’s refinances at just $0.532 trillion.
Next year, between 2.0 million and 2.5 million refinances are expected to close for between $0.530 trillion and $0.648 trillion.
“For the refinance segment, we see another decline, but not as steep as other forecasters are suggesting, due to a still low mortgage interest rate environment,” Watson added.
Overall mortgage 2017 production is expected to range from 6.6 million to 6.9 million loans for between $1.706 trillion and $1.811 trillion. Just $1.557 trillion was projected in the April report.
Next year, iEmergent predicts that from 6.5 million to 6.9 million loans will be originated for between $1.712 trillion and $1.830 trillion.
