An increase in this year’s expected refinance volume by mortgage bankers was more than offset by a cut to the outlook for purchase financing.
The projection for overall residential originations during the second quarter is $267 billion, the same as predicted last month.
But the third-quarter forecast was reduced to $289 billion from the previous month’s prediction of $298 billion.
The forecast was made in the Mortgage Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The trade group, which is meeting in New York this week for its National Secondary Market Conference & Expo, has purchase production going from $158 billion in the current quarter to $179 billion in the third quarter. Last month’s outlook had third-quarter purchase volume at $195 billion.
Refinance originations are expected to inch up from $109 billion in the second quarter to $110 billion. The third-quarter projection was raised from $103 billion.
The full-year 2014 forecast for overall volume fell to $1.046 trillion from $1.065 trillion expected last month. Next year’s outlook was trimmed to $1.217 trillion from $1.219 trillion.
MBA lowered its 2014 purchase forecast to $0.621 trillion from $0.646 trillion, while next year’s purchase projection dipped to $0.807 trillion from $0.808 trillion.
Refinances, meanwhile, are now expected to come in this year at $0.425 versus last month’s outlook of $0.419 trillion. The 2015 refinance forecast slipped to $0.410 trillion from $0.411 trillion.
MBA has refinance share at 41 percent in 2014 and 34 percent next year.
