Mortgage Daily

Published On: June 21, 2018

The latest economic data has the estimated amount of mortgage originations last year higher the previously thought. Next year’s forecast was also raised.

Home lenders are expected to originate $482 billion in U.S. mortgages during the three-month period than ends as of mid-2018.

Collective mortgage production is then predicted to slip to $480 billion in the third quarter and amount to $400 billion in the final-three months of the year.

The predictions were made in the June 2018 Economic & Housing Market Forecast from Freddie Mac.

Loans to refinance an existing mortgage are projected to fall from $130 billion in the current quarter to $125 billion in the third quarter.

Refinance and purchase originations were determined based on refinance share reported by Freddie.

Freddie has purchase financing
rising from $352 billion in the second quarter to $355 billion the following three months.

Estimated full-year overall originations for 2017 were revised up to $1.888 trillion from $1.865 trillion forecasted last month.

Production for 2018 is expected to come in at $1.750 trillion then inch up to $1.760 trillion next year, more than $1.744 trillion previously forecasted.

Freddie revised up its refinance estimate for last year to $0.680 trillion from its previous outlook of $0.671 trillion. This year’s refinances are expected to fall to
$0.508 trillion, and a further decrease to $0.422 trillion in 2019 is expected, though that is up from $419 previously predicted.

Refinance share will go from 29 percent this year to 24 percent in 2019.

Estimated purchase-money lending for 2017 was revised up to $1.208 trillion from $1.194 trillion. The 2018 forecast was left at $1.243 trillion, but the following year’s outlook was increased to $1.338 trillion from $1.325 trillion.

Based on the volume of FHA and VA originations projected by Freddie, government share is expected to widen from 22.7 percent in 2017 to 23.0 percent this year then thin to 22.6 percent in 2019.

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