Expectations for this year’s refinance production were raised by more than $50 billion, while next year’s forecast was lifted by the same amount.
Second-quarter residential originations by all U.S. lenders are projected to be $452 billion then tumble to $296 billion in the third quarter.
In March, the second-quarter forecast for home-loan production was $401 billion, while the outlook for the third quarter was $306 billion.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the prediction, expects refinance volume to fall from $289 billion to $136 billion in the third quarter. The trade group previously forecasted that refinances would fall from $241 billion in the second quarter to $141 billion.
MBA sees refinance share at 64 percent in the second quarter and 46 percent in the third quarter.
Purchase financing is projected to be $163 billion in the second quarter and $160 billion in the third quarter. Last month’s outlook had purchase production rising from $160 billion to $165 billion.
MBA expects full-year 2013 originations to come in at $1.478 trillion, more than the $1.432 trillion projected last month.
Next year’s forecasted volume was raised to $1.091 trillion from $1.053 trillion.
The latest refinance forecast is $0.886 trillion for 2013 and $0.388 trillion for 2014 versus the $0.835 trillion and $0.337 trillion respectively projected in the previous outlook.
Full-year 2013 refinance share is projected to be 60 percent then sink to 36 percent next year.
This year’s purchase forecast was trimmed to $0.592 trillion from $0.597 trillion, while next year’s purchase projection fell to $0.703 trillion from $0.716 trillion.
In this month’s MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, the association stopped predicting the share of adjustable-rate mortgages.
