Mortgage Daily

Published On: October 18, 2016

The outlook for home-lending activity from last year through next year has improved by $50 billion. Refinance and purchase financing benefited.

During the final three months of 2016, U.S. mortgage originators are expected to generate a total of $459 billion in residential loan production.

Mortgage originations are then expected to fall to $343 billion in the first quarter of next year then bounce up to $424 billion three months later.

Fannie Mae made the predictions in its Housing Forecast: October 2016.

Economists at the secondary lender raised their projections from last month, when volume was expected to fall from $439 billion in the fourth quarter to $334 billion in the first-three months of 2017 then bounce up to $428 billion in the second quarter.

Fannie trimmed its current-quarter purchase-money outlook by $1 billion to $247 billion, while the first-quarter 2017 purchase outlook dipped $2 billion to $179 billion.

Fourth-quarter 2016 refinances are now expected to reach $211 billion versus the $191 billion previously expected, and the following quarter’s refinance projection rose to $164 billion from $153 billion.

For all of 2015, Fannie increased its overall estimate
to $1.730 trillion from the previously forecasted $1.711 trillion. This year’s full-year projection grew to $1.832 trillion from $1.803 trillion, and the 2017 prediction inched up to $1.550 trillion from $1.548 trillion.

Fannie now estimates that purchase financing was $0.922 trillion last year, more than the previous estimate of $0.916 trillion. The 2016 purchase forecast was expanded to $1.012 trillion from $1.005 trillion, though next year’s expected purchase-money lending was reduced to $1.002 trillion from $1.012 trillion.

The 2015 refinance estimate increased to $0.808 trillion from $0.795 trillion, while this year’s refinance outlook grew to $0.820
from $0.797 trillion, and next year’s increased to $0.548 trillion from $0.536 trillion.

Fannie estimates that refinance share will fall from 47 percent last year to 45 percent in 2016 and 35 percent next year.

Tools for Your Next Big Decision.

Amortization Calculator

Affordability Calculator

Mortgage Calculator

Refinance Calculator

FHA Mortgage Calculator

VA Mortgage Calculator

Real Estate Calculator


Pre-Approval Resources!

Making well educated decions in a matter of minutes and stay up to date on the latest news Mortgage Daily has to offer. Read our latest articles to stay up to date on what’s going on…

Resource Center

Since 1998, Mortgage Daily has helped millions of people such as yourself navigate the complicated hurdles of the mortgage industry. See our popular topics below, search our website. With over 300,000 articles, we are guaranteed to have something for you.

Your mortgages approval starts here.

Add 1-2 sentence here. Add 1-2 sentence here. Add 1-2 sentence here. Add 1-2 sentence here. Add 1-2 sentence here.

Stay Up To Date with Today’s Latest Rates


Today’s rates starting at


5/1 ARM
$200,000 LOAN

Home Refinance

Today’s rates starting at


$200,000 LOAN

Home Equity

Today’s rates starting at


$200,000 LOAN


Today’s rates starting at


$200,000 LOAN