Mortgage Daily

Published On: October 17, 2011

Again, the Federal National Mortgage Association has lifted its outlook for second-half originations by at least $100 billion.

Fannie Mae predicts that fourth-quarter production by all residential lenders will be $351 billion, slipping from $355 billion in the third quarter.

Last month’s estimate from the secondary lender had originations falling to $289 billion from $317 billion. That estimate was raised $110 billion from August’s outlook.

Most of the improved outlook was with refinances, which are now projected to climb to $263 billion in the fourth quarter from $250 billion in the third quarter versus last month’s forecast that refinances would fall to $201 billion from $214 billion.

The expectation for fourth-quarter refinance share has risen to 75 percent from 70 percent predicted in September.

Even the projection for purchase production has improved.

Last month, Fannie had purchase originations falling to $88 billion in the fourth quarter from $103 billion. Now, the Washington, D.C.-based company sees third-quarter purchase activity at $105 billion.

The outlook for full-year originations has been raised to $1.302 trillion from last month’s $1.202 trillion forecast.

Next year, overall volume is projected at $0.958 trillion, while 2013 activity is expected to rise back to $1.007 trillion.

Total mortgages outstanding are expected to end this year at $10.278 trillion then fall to $10.082 trillion by the end of 2012 and $9.985 trillion in 2013.

First mortgages account for $9.409 trillion of this year’s ending balance. The total will fall to $9.263 trillion at the end of next year and $9.194 trillion at the end of 2013.

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