Mortgage bankers raised their forecast for fourth-quarter mortgage production, lowered their estimate of second-quarter purchase financing and increased their estimate of second-quarter refinance originations.
Total U.S. mortgage production is expected to fall from an estimated $494 billion in the second quarter to $369 billion in the third quarter then finish the final three months of the year at $260 billion.
While the second and third quarter numbers were unchanged from last month’s outlook, the fourth-quarter projection was increased from $247 billion.
The projections were made by the Mortgage Bankers Association in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast for September.
The second-quarter purchase production estimate was lowered to $168 billion from $178 billion, while the third-quarter outlook was left at $180 billion and the fourth-quarter forecast was lifted to $143 billion from $136 billion.
MBA raised its estimate of second-quarter refinance volume to $326 billion from $316 billion, left its second-quarter projection at $189 billion and increased its fourth-quarter refinance outlook to $117 billion from $111 billion last month.
MBA has full-year 2013 mortgage originations at $1.605 trillion, more than the $1.592 trillion expected last month. But the 2014 outlook was unchanged at $1.091 trillion.
This year’s expected purchase financing was trimmed to $0.616 trillion from $0.619 trillion forecasted in August, while the trade group left its 2014 purchase forecast at $0.703 trillion.
Refinance volume is expected to reach $0.989 trillion in 2013 versus the $0.973 trillion predicted last month, and next year’s refinance forecast was unchanged at $0.388 trillion.
Refinance share is projected to tumble from 62 percent in 2013 to 36 percent in 2014.
