Mortgage Rates Today: Daily 30-Year Rate 6.97% Sep 16 2026

Mortgage Rates Today: What’s Trending

Four rises in a row is the story, and the size of them is the point: 6.77% on the first published day of last week, then 6.81%, 6.88%, 6.95% and now 6.97%, a 20-basis-point climb across five observations. At 6.97%, a $400,000 loan runs $2,653 a month in principal and interest, and a $400,000 home bought with 20% down, a $320,000 loan, costs $2,123.

Today’s rate in context

A year ago, at 6.26%, that same $400,000 loan cost $2,465 a month, so today’s borrower pays $188 more every month, or $2,256 more over a year.

What to do right now

Monday’s reading also settled the first test of our weekly forecast the hard way: the base case for Monday was 6.89% with a range of 6.83% to 6.95%, and the actual 6.97% landed above the top of it. The week’s call, a modest decline on a Fed hold, now needs the Fed to deliver.

Where Rates Are Headed

The 10-year Treasury closed Tuesday at 5.00%, up from 4.97% on Monday and 4.96% on Friday, according to the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve; the two-year at 4.67% sits well above the Fed’s target range. On Monday, the last day with both figures published, the mortgage benchmark sat above the 10-year through a spread of 200 basis points, exactly its one-year average, so mortgage rates are tracking Treasuries with no cushion in either direction.

What could move rates next

Today carries two events. The retail sales report on September 16 prints at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 16 delivers its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern with a press conference after it. A quarter-point rise would carry a $400,000 loan to $2,721 a month. In our view the risk around the decision is two-sided: our base case, a hold, would let yields give back part of their climb, while a hike or a hold with hawkish guidance would push them higher from a level already at a one-year high.

What’s Moving the Market

The Federal Reserve’s target range is 3.50%–3.75%, and today’s decision on September 16 comes with unemployment at 4.1%, headline CPI running at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.4% and core PCE at 3.3%, plus August payrolls of 162,000 and producer prices up 5.4% on the year.

The driver right now

Markets go in tilted toward a hike: the two-year Treasury climbed again on Tuesday to 4.67%. MortgageDaily’s base case remains a hold, with the statement and the press conference carrying the message, and we say so plainly because our weekly forecast is built on it and will be judged by it. Before the decision, the retail sales report on September 16 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern can move yields; after it, the housing starts report on September 17 and the industrial production report on September 18 are the rest of the week’s calendar.

What This Rate Means for Homebuyers

Monday’s 6.97% is the number a quote pulled this week is being compared against; anything from before Friday predates the last two legs of the climb and should be re-run. On a $400,000 home with 20% down, the $320,000 loan costs $2,123 a month at 6.97%; on a full $400,000 loan the figure is $2,653.

Lock or float?

A year ago, at 6.26%, that same $320,000 loan cost $1,972 a month, so today’s borrower pays $151 more every month, or $1,812 more over a year.

Smart shopping moves

If your closing is inside 45 days, the window to lock before the decision closes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern; rate sheets typically reprice within the hour after a Fed statement. A lock gives up a favorable move for protection against an unfavorable one, on the lender’s terms. With 60 days or more, floating through the decision is defensible if a quarter-point higher payment is survivable, and it is the stance our own base case implies; a float-down option, where offered, is a separate feature with its own cost.

For First-Time Homebuyers

A $285,000 starter loan costs $1,890 a month at today’s rate. The credit-score gap keeps widening at the top of the range: on Optimal Blue’s indices for conforming locks with a loan-to-value at or below 80%, scores above 740 averaged 6.90% on Monday while scores below 680 averaged 7.13%, a 23-basis-point gap worth about $49 a month on a $320,000 loan.

Getting in with less down

FHA rules hold regardless of the Fed: 3.5% down at a 580 credit score, 10% down from 500 to 579, no FHA insurance below 500, and lenders may set stricter floors. The FHA benchmark sits about 24 basis points under conventional; ask for the total payment including mortgage insurance before comparing.

What This Rate Means for Refinancers

A $350,000 balance still at 7.25% costs $2,388 a month; moving it to today’s rate brings that to $2,322, freeing $66 every month. At 6.97% the gap to a 7.25% loan is the narrowest it has been in the past year, and the saving shrinks with every basis point the benchmark adds.

Is it worth it yet?

Refinancing is most compelling when your rate sits materially above the benchmark, but closing costs, the monthly saving and how long you keep the loan decide it: divide the costs by the saving for the break-even in months. On a Fed day, have the numbers ready for tomorrow rather than acting on a quote that will be repriced after the decision.

For Real Estate Investors

Illustrative investor pricing, roughly 60 basis points above today’s conforming benchmark, runs near 7.57%, and a $225,000 loan at that level is $1,584 a month. The premium sits on top of a base that has risen four sessions running, so a deal that penciled out at Friday’s quote may not at Monday’s.

Making the numbers work

Underwrite to the rate a lender will lock this week, keep a vacancy month in the model, and treat a post-Fed dip, if one comes, as a chance to re-quote rather than a reason to have waited.

15-Year vs 30-Year: Which Is Right for You?

A $350,000 loan over 30 years at 6.97% costs $2,322 a month and $485,744 in total interest. The 15-year at 6.27% costs $3,005 a month and $190,863, a difference of $294,881 over the life of the loan.

Who the 15-year fits

The discount for the shorter term is about 70 basis points, close to where it stood at the end of last week, so the trade-off has not changed even as both rates rose: the shorter loan still rewards a household that can carry the higher payment, and today’s decision moves both terms together more than it moves the gap.

How Far Rates Actually Move in a Single Day

Over the past month the 30-year has moved an average of 2.9 basis points a day in either direction, and the rate has now moved the same way for 4 straight sessions, all of them up. On a $400,000 loan a three-basis-point move is worth about $8 a month, which is why a normal day rarely justifies a lock decision on its own. Four average days in the same direction add up to about $30 a month; the past four sessions, at 20 basis points, have cost a borrower who waited about $53 a month.

What it means for you

A Fed decision is not a normal day. The average daily move measures the market’s ordinary drift; the tail of the distribution, a move several times the average in a single session, is exactly what an afternoon like this one can produce, in either direction. A lock is priced against the drift and bought against the tail.

What would change it

Neither figure is a forecast. The daily average tells you what waiting usually costs; the calendar tells you when that average stops being a useful guide, and today it stops at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

The Bottom Line

The 30-year benchmark stands at 6.97%, the latest available observation, dated Monday, September 14, a one-year high after four straight rises; Tuesday’s reading publishes later today. A $400,000 loan costs $2,653 a month on that figure.

Your move

Today’s sequence: the retail sales report on September 16 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, then the Federal Reserve’s decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on September 16. Our weekly forecast’s base case is a hold and a modest decline to 6.84% by Friday; Monday’s actual already sits above the top of that day’s range, so the call rests entirely on the decision.

What to watch next

For a closing inside 45 days, decide before 2:00 p.m. Eastern. For everyone else, Thursday’s published reading, the first to include the decision, is the number worth comparing.