Mortgage rates today, October 8, 2026, put the 30-year fixed at 7.43% in the latest published Optimal Blue observation, dated Wednesday, October 7, down from 7.45% in yesterday’s article, a decline of 2 basis points and the second straight dip from the one-year high. The 15-year fixed rebounded to 6.81% from 6.54%, and Bankrate’s national average 5/1 ARM APR sits at 6.78%. The 30-year sits 3 basis points below the top of the past month’s range, which runs from 6.66% to 7.46%, after seventeen straight observations at or above 7%, and Freddie Mac‘s weekly survey lands later today.
Mortgage Rates Today: What’s Trending
Three observations into the week, the 30-year is 5 basis points above the 7.38% in Friday’s October 2 observation, after 7.46% on Monday, 7.45% on Tuesday and 7.43% on Wednesday, and seventeen straight observations have now printed at or above 7%. At this rate a $400,000 loan costs $2,778 a month in principal and interest, and a $400,000 home with 20% down, a $320,000 loan, costs $2,222; every $100,000 borrowed now costs $694 a month.
Today’s rate in context
A year ago, at 6.29%, that same $400,000 loan cost $2,473 a month, so today’s borrower pays $305 more every month, or $3,660 more over a year. The 15-year has become the volatile term: it rose 15 basis points on Monday, fell 26 on Tuesday and rose 27 on Wednesday, so its discount to the 30-year went from 91 basis points in the October 6 observation back to 62. Program pricing moved up across the board on Wednesday: Optimal Blue’s FHA index reached 7.21%, its VA index 7.13% and the jumbo index 7.53%, back to 10 basis points above the conforming benchmark after one session below it.
What to do right now
For a buyer with a signed contract, the practical move is to re-quote today and to keep a 15-year quote in the comparison only if it was issued the same day, because that term has moved a quarter point in a session twice this week. The benchmark itself has moved within a 3-basis-point band since Monday, so a 30-year quote from earlier in the week is close to current; get a fresh quote anyway, and a second one from another lender in the same hour.
Where Rates Are Headed
The climb since the September 3 observation at 6.74% now runs 69 basis points over 23 sessions, and Wednesday’s 7.43% sits 3 basis points under the one-year high of 7.46% set in the October 5 observation. Two straight small declines after a new high is a pause, not a reversal, and the 15-year’s swing back to 6.81% says the market has not settled on a direction for the shorter term either.
What could move rates next
The bond market barely moved. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.28% on October 7, up 1 basis point from the 5.27% close of October 6 and 3 under the 5.31% high set on October 5, according to the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve; the 2-year closed at 4.77% and the 30-year bond at 5.67%. In the October 7 observation the mortgage benchmark sat above the 10-year through a spread of 215 basis points, 3 narrower than the day before, so this time the benchmark eased while yields held, giving back part of Tuesday’s widening.
What is most likely from here
In our view the risk into the CPI report on October 14 still leans higher: the 10-year has spent five sessions within 7 basis points of a one-year high, and nothing on the calendar before that report argues for lower yields. Our weekly forecast calls Rising with Low confidence and a Friday base case of 7.43%; Wednesday’s actual, 7.43%, sits 2 basis points above Wednesday’s 7.41% base case, the smallest miss of the week, so the direction is right and the level is close. A quarter-point rise from here would carry a $400,000 loan to $2,846 a month.
What’s Moving the Market
The CPI report on October 14, which covers September, is the first first-tier release on the calendar, followed by the PPI report on October 15 and the retail sales report on October 15 the next day; until then the September jobs report published October 2 remains the freshest data, with payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve’s target range stands at 3.75%–4.00% after the hike at its September 16 meeting, and headline CPI at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.4% and core PCE at 3.0% in the PCE report published September 30 are why the bond market is not pricing a quick reversal.
The driver right now
Today’s scheduled number is Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which lands later today and covers applications dated October 1 through October 7, a week in which the daily benchmark ran from 7.37% to 7.46%. Last week’s survey, published October 1, printed 7.28%, 15 basis points under Wednesday’s daily benchmark, and a print above 7.3% today would be the survey catching up with pricing that lenders have shown for a week.
The economic calendar ahead
After the CPI report the calendar runs to the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 28 and the PCE report on October 29. The bond market is closed on October 12 for Columbus Day, so no Treasury or Optimal Blue observation prints that day and the benchmark next updates on the following business day. A cooler inflation reading is the one scheduled thing that could pull yields back from a one-year high, and a hotter one extends the run.
What This Rate Means for Homebuyers
A $400,000 loan costs $2,778 a month in principal and interest at 7.43%, and a $400,000 home with 20% down, a $320,000 loan, runs $2,222. A year ago, at 6.29%, that same $320,000 loan cost $1,979 a month, so today’s borrower pays $243 more every month, or $2,916 more over a year.
Lock or float?
If your closing is inside 45 days, locking remains the conservative choice: the benchmark is 3 basis points under a one-year high, the 10-year is 3 under its own, and the CPI report on October 14 is the next scheduled thing that can move either. A lock trades the chance of a better rate for protection against a worse one, on the lender’s terms. With 60 days or more, floating toward the CPI report is a bet that inflation cools; if you take it, agree the lock trigger with the lender in advance and ask what a float-down option would cost on the eventual lock.
Smart shopping moves
Model the payment at 7.43% and at a quarter point higher, $2,846 on the $400,000 loan; the $68 a month between the two is what a quarter point costs, so collect three quotes within the same session before choosing. At this level a seller credit toward closing costs or a temporary buydown can be worth more than a price cut of the same size in the first two years, so ask for it first.
For First-Time Homebuyers
A $300,000 purchase with 5% down is a $285,000 loan, and at 7.43% it costs $1,979 a month in principal and interest before taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. A $400,000 home with 5% down means a $380,000 loan and about $2,639 a month on the same basis.
Getting in with less down
Program pricing rose on Wednesday but kept its discount: in the October 7 observation Optimal Blue’s FHA index was 7.21%, 22 basis points below the conforming benchmark, and its VA index 7.13%, 30 below. An FHA loan takes 3.5% down with a 580 credit score and 10% down from 500 to 579; VA loans carry no down payment for eligible veterans; USDA loans none in eligible rural areas. The discount is narrower than it was a week ago, so ask for the total payment with insurance and fees for each program before choosing.
How to compete and win
When a listing draws more than one offer, a fully underwritten pre-approval, with income, assets and credit already verified, carries more weight than a pre-qualification built on stated numbers. Ask the lender to re-issue the letter at today’s rate so the payment inside it is one you can carry. The right home at the right price often matters more than waiting for a perfect rate.
What This Rate Means for Refinancers
The standard refinance example stays negative: a $350,000 balance carried at 7.25% costs $2,388 a month, and the same loan at today’s 7.43% would cost $2,430, $42 more. A borrower holding a rate in the low 7s has nothing to refinance into at this benchmark, and two 2-basis-point dips do not change that arithmetic.
Is it worth it yet?
The case opens for rates materially above the benchmark, which at 7.43% means loans written at roughly 8.25% and up, and even then the break-even is closing costs divided by the monthly saving; a refinance also restarts the 30-year clock, so a borrower deep into the old schedule can lower the payment and still pay more in total interest. The 15-year door that opened on Tuesday at 6.54% narrowed on Wednesday at 6.81%, which is the reason to price a 15-year refinance on the day you intend to lock it rather than on last week’s quote.
Cash-out versus rate-and-term
Cash-out at 7.43% is a debt decision rather than a rate decision: it can still make sense for retiring balances that cost far more, such as credit cards, and rarely for discretionary spending that turns a short-term cost into a 30-year one. Rate-and-term borrowers are waiting, and the same arithmetic will show the moment the benchmark drops back below the rate they hold.
For Real Estate Investors
Illustrative investor pricing, assuming roughly 60 basis points above today’s conforming benchmark of 7.43%, would put the rate near 8.03%, with monthly principal and interest on a $225,000 loan at $1,656. A deal priced on last week’s quote is 5 basis points behind the benchmark; re-quote before you re-offer, and price the jumbo index at 7.53% if the loan is above the conforming limit, because Tuesday’s dip below conforming lasted one session.
Making the numbers work
Cap rate, gross rent multiplier and cash-on-cash return at the locked rate, with a vacancy month in the model, decide whether a property still works with financing near 8%. The consolation is thinner competition: each week above 7% removes more rate-sensitive owner-occupant bidders from the same listings, and an investor with reserves can use that.
Alternative financing options
DSCR loans, underwritten on the property’s rental income, price above conventional investor loans, and bridge or hard-money financing costs several points more again; they solve specific problems, not the rate. Model the exit at the rate the lender will lock now, not at the rate you hope the CPI report on October 14 brings.
Quick Tips by Buyer Type
15-Year vs 30-Year: Which Is Right for You?
A $350,000 loan over 30 years at 7.43% costs $2,430 a month and $524,979 in total interest; the same loan over 15 years at 6.81% costs $3,109 a month and $209,591 in interest. The shorter term costs $679 more each month and saves $315,388 over the life of the loan.
Who the 15-year fits
The 15-year’s discount to the 30-year narrowed to 62 basis points on Wednesday from 91 the session before, because the 15-year rose 27 basis points while the 30-year slipped 2; the widest gap of the past year lasted exactly one observation, which is why a 15-year quote is only worth comparing on the day it was issued. At 6.81% the shorter term remains a powerful wealth-building tool for a household with stable income, a real reserve and a career far enough along that the higher payment is not a stretch.
Why most pick the 30-year
The 30-year remains the right loan for most households because it keeps the payment survivable: the lower figure protects cash flow, and one extra principal payment a year captures a large part of the 15-year’s benefit without the obligation. For a first-time buyer stretching to get in at 7.43%, the 30-year is almost always the more prudent choice, and the shorter term can come later through a refinance if rates fall and income grows.
What $2,500 a Month Buys Now Against a Year Ago
A buyer with $2,500 a month to spend on principal and interest can borrow $360,000 at today’s rate, against $404,000 a year ago, $44,000 less buying power on the same budget. With 20% down, that is the difference between shopping at about $505,000 and shopping at about $450,000, and none of it came from the buyer: the budget is the same, the rate is 7.43% instead of 6.29%.
What it means for you
For a borrower deciding this week, the number to work with is the price ceiling, not the rate. Each quarter point on the rate moves what $2,500 a month borrows by about $9,000, so the 3-basis-point drift of the past two sessions is worth about $1,000 of house, while a lock that stops the next quarter-point rise protects about $9,000 of it. A buyer who was pre-approved at a higher price a year ago and has not had the letter re-run is looking at listings the budget no longer covers, and the lender, not the market, is the fix.
What would change it
What would change it is a lower rate or a bigger budget. A half-point drop to 6.93% would restore about $18,000 of borrowing power on the same $2,500, which is roughly what a cooler CPI report on October 14 and a 10-year falling back under 5% might deliver over weeks, not days; a seller credit toward a temporary buydown does the same job faster for the first two years. Until one of those arrives, the honest pre-approval is the one written at 7.43%.
Rate Lock Tips
The Bottom Line
Mortgage rates today stand at 7.43% for the 30-year fixed in the last published market observation, dated Wednesday, October 7, down from 7.45% the session before, a move of 2 basis points and the second straight dip from the one-year high; that is 3 basis points under the top of the past month’s range, which runs from 6.66% to 7.46%, while the 15-year swung back to 6.81%. A $400,000 loan costs $2,778 a month. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.28% and the CPI report on October 14 the next scheduled test, we see the risk still leaning higher: lock if you close inside 30 to 45 days; with 60 days or more, floating is a bet on a cooler CPI, and a float-down on the eventual lock is worth pricing.
Your move
Homebuyers: get a fresh quote today, have the pre-approval re-run at 7.43%, and model the payment at 7.43% and at 7.68%. Refinancers: unless the rate you hold is well above 7.43%, the arithmetic does not work at this benchmark; run the break-even with real closing costs before paying for an application. Investors: underwrite at the rate the lender will lock, and keep the vacancy month in the model.
What to watch next
Watch Freddie Mac’s survey later today for how far it catches up with the daily benchmark; then the 10-year against its 5.31% high, the CPI report on October 14, which covers September, and the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 28. The bond market is closed on October 12 for Columbus Day. Stay in contact with your lender and make sure you understand your lock window before any key data releases.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are mortgage rates today for a 30-year fixed?
Mortgage rates today for a 30-year fixed average 7.43%. Rates vary by lender and depend on factors like credit score, down payment, and loan amount.
What are mortgage rates today for a 15-year fixed?
Mortgage rates today for a 15-year fixed average 6.81%. This shorter term typically offers lower rates but higher monthly payments.
Should I lock in mortgage rates today?
Whether to lock in mortgage rates today depends on your timeline and risk tolerance. With 30-year rates at 7.43%, consider locking if you’re closing within 30-60 days and are comfortable with current rates.
How do I get the best mortgage rates today?
To get the best mortgage rates today, compare quotes from at least 3 lenders, lock your rate when you’re comfortable, and improve your credit score before applying. With current 30-year rates at 7.43%, even a 0.25% difference saves thousands over the life of the loan.
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30-year and 15-year figures are note rates from Optimal Blue. The 5/1 ARM figure is Bankrate’s national average APR from its daily survey of large lenders, as of October 8, 2026; the sources use different methodologies and date bases and are not directly comparable. Sources & further reading: Optimal Blue (OBMMI) via FRED, U.S. Treasury (DGS10) via FRED, BLS CPI and Employment Situation, BEA PCE, the Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac PMMS, and Bankrate (5/1 ARM APR).
